Wednesday, May 23, 2018

In New Jersey, ACA reinsurance or....?

Here in Jersey, progressives are urging Governor Murphy to sign two bills designed to fend off Republican sabotage of the ACA. The first would establish a state individual mandate to replace the effectively repealed federal mandate. The second would seek federal funding for a reinsurance program for the individual market for health insurance, designed to reduce premiums by 10-20%.

If the two bills are enacted and the ensuing waiver application seeking federal funding for reinsurance is approved, the two measures should reduce premiums by 20-30%, compared to where they'd be if no action is taken. For more detail, see this writeup.

Governor Murphy is likely to sign the mandate bill, but there are indications that he may seek changes to the reinsurance bill. The problem is cost.

Rough projections are that revenue from the mandate would cover a third to half of the reinsurance program's costs, while the federal government picks up half or a bit more than half. The state could be on the hook for an additional $30-40 million per year. New Jersey is in dire financial shape;  Murphy has a lot of spending priorities, and a looming fight on his hand to raise new revenue.

State Senator Joseph Vitale is confident that if the program proves to need more funding by FY 2021, when the first bill to insurers comes due, a revenue source can be developed -- probably via an assessment on insurers. Murphy might seek to get that in writing, in the bill -- as it was in an early version.  He would do so by issuing a conditional veto, after which the legislature would have to vote on an amended bill by June 7.

I found myself mulling this evening: If the bid to stand up a reinsurance program fails, how else might the mandate revenue, projected at about $90-100 million per year, be deployed to boost healthcare access in the state? One answer might be simply to return the mandate revenue to those hurt most directly by rising premiums: enrollees in the individual market who don't qualify for federal subsidies (subsidized enrollees pay a fixed percentage of income for a benchmark plan and so are not directly affected by premium hikes). These are mostly people above the income eligibility threshold, 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL). They also include people who are ineligible for subsidies because of an offer of insurance from an employer.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Four ways states can leverage ACA sabotage

Sabotage of the ACA by the Trump administration and the Republican Congress will partially reverse the ACA's coverage gains, causing hardship to millions. But it differs from Republicans' failed legislative repeal in a fundamental way: The ACA's funding streams and mechanisms remain in place.

Not only can states that retain the will to make the ACA work continue to tap federal funding -- if they're willing to be creative, they can tap revenue streams created and inflated by the sabotage. Each form of sabotage has created new opportunities. There are at least four ways that states can not only fight off sabotage, but leverage funding opportunities that sabotage has created.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

In Health Affairs: If CMS ends silver loading

I've co-authored with David Anderson, Charles Gaba and Louise Norris a blog post in Health Affairs that surveys the fallout from Trump's cutoff of federal funding for Cost Sharing Reduction subsidies in 2018 and considers the likely effects if the Trump administration moves to block the current effective strategies that most states have employed for dealing with that cutoff.

That is, what happens if CMS administrator Seema Verma and/or HHS Secretary Alex Azar move to block states from allowing or instructing insurers in the individual market to price CSR into silver plans only, a strategy that has created discounts in gold and bronze plans?

Part one recounts the history of how states and insurers found their way to silver loading. Part two quantifies how many people likely benefited from discounted bronze and gold plans. Part three reviews the impact of the CSR cutoff on unsubsidized premiums. And Part four considers the likely effects on plan pricing and enrollment if HHS/CMS either forces individual market insurers to spread the cost of CSR evenly among all ACA-compliant plans or to spread it evenly among all plans sold on-exchange only.

Hope you'll take a look.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

A "modernist' C.S. Lewis?

Continuing vacation-week repostings of the nonpolitical...

(8/17/14) Lev Grossman, a fantasy writer whose works I have not yet been privileged to read, has a wonderful, wonderful, wonderful tribute to C. S. Lewis, who brought him into the worlds of reading and of fantasy. He focuses first on a passage that I used to xerox for students, also trying to capture its magic:
Even more than that, it’s the way he uses language—which is nothing like the way fantasists used language before him. There’s no sense of nostalgia. There’s no medieval floridness. There’s no fairy tale condescension to the child reader. It’s very straight, and very clean—there’s no Vaseline on the lens. You see everything clearly, not with sparkles or a flowery sense of wonderment, but with very specific physical details. Look at the attention to detail as you watch Lucy going through the wardrobe:
This must be a simply enormous wardrobe!" thought Lucy, going still further in and pushing the soft folds of the coats aside to make room for her. Then she noticed that there was something crunching under her feet. "I wonder is that more mothballs?" she thought, stooping down to feel it with her hand. But instead of feeling the hard, smooth wood of the floor of the wardrobe, she felt something soft and powdery and extremely cold. "This is very queer," she said, and went on a step or two further.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Melt like wax into God or be born into her womb?

Continuing vacation posting of old non-political bits...

Kierkegaard, Julian, Obama

(5/5/13) -- Who knows what governs how a moderately engaged undergraduate makes sense of abstruse philosophic texts? As a sophomore, my mind settled on a basic dichotomy: Hegel bad, Kierkegaard good. This was probably what you might call a gendered thought. Hegel's basic How-Things-Work was to my mind aggressive, imperialist, male: thesis absorbs antithesis in new synthesis. Man slays dragon, eats its heart, becomes (relative) superman. Kierkegaard, by contrast, kept apparently irreconcilable opposites in eternal balance, on an eternal toggle switch whereby they could be seen alternately as part of a unity and eternally distinct.

I can't tell you at this distance whether my abstract caricature is accurate, but it has stayed with me all my life, and I tend to class thinkers on one side or the other of this divide. In retrospect, I'm sure that I placed the subject of my dissertation, the medieval mystic Julian of Norwich (an achoress, i.e. a nun in self-imposed solitary confinement) on the Kierkeaardian side of the ledger, though I never zoomed up the centuries to probe the association. *

Julian had a brilliant trick of subordinating the harsh elements of Catholic dogma that she didn't like (the damned are damned forever) to those that she felt by force of direct revelation to be true (all will be well, and all will be well, and all manner of things will be well).  Her basic dynamic was that God-as-man maintains two "cheres," or points of view: the human, limited one, whereby we must see and condemn our own sin, and the "inward, more ghostly" and more strictly divine one, whereby no one does anything except by God's will, and God is delighted with all, and sin is merely an instrument of human self-education.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

"New Jersey is poised to fight off ACA sabotage. Is Gov. Murphy on board?"

As Ive noted before, while the New Jersey legislature has passed bills establishing a state individual mandate and a reinsurance program, Gov. Murphy has not committed to signing them. I have an op-ed up on NJ Spotlight arguing that the need is urgent.:
The Congressional Budget Office forecast that mandate repeal in itself would generate premium increases of 10 percent per year throughout the next decade. An analysis of the impact on states commissioned by Covered California the state's ACA marketplace, put New Jersey in the highest risk category, where premiums are forecast to rise as much as 90 percent over three years if action is not taken to strengthen the markets. Early insurer rate requests filed in Virginia and Maryland are showing sky-high increases. Maryland's insurance commissioner is warning of a death spiral and placing hope on the state's reinsurance waiver proposal.
If there's any sticking point, it's probably related to cost. Here is an outtake with someone more detail than I had space for:

Outside our diseased political realm...

Good morning! I'm going to be on vacation for a week-plus, and probably not blogging healthcare. In the interlude, I thought I'd re-post a few non-political entries. The first, below, is from January 2010. I also have a couple of healthcare articles placed elsewhere (one a co-byline) that should drop during my time away. I'll post links when that happens.

A Cliff note for deconstruction

(1/8/10) -- Deconstruction, the literary theory that "attempts to demonstrate that any text is not a discrete whole but contains several irreconcilable and contradictory meanings" (Wikipedia - a definition as good as any) has been popularly regarded as an arcane, perverse bit of wizardry on the border between fraud and rocket science. I always felt that it demonstrated itself pretty well empirically (though logically, it should also unravel its own propositions...).

One Shakespeare sonnet, No. 24, always seemed to me to capture the idea in a line - the one bolded below.

Mine eye hath played the painter and hath stelled
Thy beauty's form in table of my heart.
My body is the frame wherein 'tis held,
and perspective it is best painter's art.
For through the painter must you see his skill
To find where your true image pictured lies,
Which in my bosom's shop is hanging still,
That hath his windows glazed with thine eyes.

Monday, May 07, 2018

Virtually no enrollment loss in state-based ACA exchanges in 2018

I imagine it's been noted before, but states that run their own ACA exchanges collectively had virtually no enrollment losses in 2018, while enrollment in the 39 HealthCare.gov states shrank 5%.

The loss even among unsubsidized exchange enrollees in the state-based exchanges (SBEs) was very slight, just 1% -- compared to 10% in the HealthCare.gov states. After Trump cut off federal funding for Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) subsidies, most of the SBEs silver-loaded CSR costs on-exchange, and allowed insurers to offer silver plans off-exchange with no CSR priced in (for an explanation, see note below). That includes California, which accounts for almost half of SBE enrollment. It might therefore have been expected that more unsubsidized enrollees in the SBEs would have moved off exchange. And where unsubsidized on-exchange enrollment did drop, it will be hard to determine if many may have enrolled in ACA-compliant plans off-exchange.

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